1、6 March 2025Allianz ResearchThe New Jedi Order:global chip war andthe semiconductor industryAllianz Research2Content Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 18-27The Empires strike each other:Chinas ambitions and US counter measures.Page 28-29 The return of the European Jedi?Page 5-17 Chip wars:whos ruling t

2、he galaxy?6 March 2025 A new hope:the ongoing recovery in the chip market.The chip market generated almost USD700bn of revenue last year,up by+21%y/y,and is expected to record a CAGR of roughly+10%over the upcoming year to become a trillion-dollar market by 2029/2030.The rebound has followed two yea

3、rs of weak performance(+1%in 2022 and-10%in 2023)inherited from the painful period of post-pandemic chip shortages and the sudden boom in demand for computing devices.Future revenues are expected to be mostly driven by the gradual integration of generative AI tools into electronic devices(+8%CAGR ov

4、er the 2024-28 period for wearables)and computing solutions(+12%CAGR),but also a full-scale deployment of the 5G technology into the mobile market(+12%CAGR)and skyrocketing investment into data centers(+15-20%CAGR).Fragmented across the galaxy:the chip supply chain has become increasingly complex an

5、d scattered around the globe.The semiconductor supply chain is divided into different pools of expertise/lead capacity,where one or two countries tend to dominate.In a nutshell,China controls raw material supply via its large reserves and refining capacities of rare earth elements,while the US is le

6、ading the IP and design segments,China and Taiwan have the biggest manufacturing capacities and Southeast Asia has specialized into the Assembly,Test&Packaging(ATP)segment.Europe looks like the underdog in that industry but shows a real expertise in the equipment market,as well as in automotive chip