1、04From normalization to catch up102024-2025:Peaking at high level14Lower interest rates will not entirely lower insolvencies15 October 2024Allianz ResearchGlobal Insolvency Outlook:AllianzTrade18Regional outlooks the insolvency waveThe ebb and flow of Allianz Research2 All in all this year,we expect

2、 double-digit increases in bankruptcies for half of the world.Year-to-date,the number of business insolvencies worldwide has increased by+9%and the rise has been broad-based across geographies and sectors.Two-thirds of countries are expected to surpass their pre-pandemic insolvency numbers,notably t

3、he UK and France.Our Global Insolvency Index will increase by+11%in 2024,ending the year between 10 and 15%above its 2016-2019 average(but-11%below its level during the Great Financial Crisis).This catch-up comes from the clearing of the backlog of insolvencies,especially companies that were shielde

4、d from going belly up thanks to support measures implemented during the pandemic and the energy crisis.Construction,retail and services have seen the strongest increases in business insolvencies in terms of frequency(the number of companies)and severity(the size of companies going bankrupt).In Q2 20

5、24,large insolvencies(companies above EUR50mn turnover)reached a new record high,with Western Europe leading the trend,surpassing pre-pandemic levels as the manufacturing sector has barely started to exit one and a half years of recession.Looking forward,slowing growth,persistent geopolitical fricti

6、ons and a delayed easing of financing conditions would push up corporate insolvencies by+2%in 2025 before stabilizing at high levels in 2026.In the US,we expect bankruptcies to increase by+12%in 2025(reaching a total of 27,800 companies)before falling by-4%in 2026.In Germany,business insolvencies wi