1、04Consumer blues27 November 2024Allianz ResearchFrom Cyber Monday to Black Friday:how the retail sector is navigating year-round challenges18There is also a tech dividend for retail09Retailers have been adjusting to inflation and supply chain challenges14The consumer is more digital,but not more res

2、ponsibleAllianz Research2 Retail sales are still strong in the US and recovering in Europe,but uncertainty could derail the ongoing improvement.In Europe,retail sales are recovering unevenly,with modest gains in countries like France and Spain(+1.6%y/y on average over Jan-Sept.2024 and+1.4%,respecti

3、vely),while Germany and Italy are recovering but more modestly.In the UK and the US,retail sales remain robust at about+2%over the same period.Wealthier consumers have been driving growth in the US as their spending grew by about+7%in 2023,almost double the growth of the poorest households.Consumer

4、confidence is showing a similar recovery pattern but savings rates in Europe remain high(e.g.17.6%in France and 20%in Germany)as households still grapple with inflation and political uncertainty.The US consumer is much more optimistic.We find that retail sales in European countries are more sensitiv

5、e to confidence shocks,which cause up to 18%of retail sales swings in the UK and 9%-10%in Germany,France and Italy,compared to only 7%in the US,increasing the risks for the sector in Europe.Fixing the confidence nexus in Europe will fix the demand issue for retailers.However,in the US,Trumps tariffs

6、 could cut the disposable incomes of poorer households by about-6%.The pricing power party is over:Retailers profitability is under pressure as inventories have piled up.Retailers around the world are struggling to preserve profitability as decreasing sales in volumes and still high operational cost