大华银行（UOB）：2025年一季度全球展望报告：特朗普2.0时期的影响（英文版）（65页）.pdf

1、Implications of Trump 2.0Quarterly Global Outlook 1Q 2025Executive SummaryImplications of Trump 2.0GDP Growth TrajectoryFX,Interest Rate&Commodities ForecastsKey Events In 1Q 2025Japan FocusSnapshot of Japans political scene post electionFX StrategyWill Trump 2.0 make the USD great again?Rates Strat

2、egy10Y UST yield to stay above 4%across 2025 amidst a shallower Fed easing cycleCommodities StrategySafe haven demand for gold to stay strong amidst Trump 2.0 economic uncertaintiesFX TechnicalsCommodities TechnicalsGlossaryGroup Research Team041415161719263253596162CONTENTNew ZealandUnited StatesUn

3、ited KingdomOutlook by EconomiesClick on the economy to view insightEurozoneAustraliaJapanChinaVietnamSouth KoreaHong KongTaiwanPhilippinesSingaporeIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaThailand .sg/researchGlobalEcoMktResearchUOBBloomberg:NH UOB Information as of 28 November 2024Research InsightsExplore moreContac

4、t usUOB Global Economics&Markets ResearchQuarterly Global Outlook 1Q20254Implications of Trump 2.0The Tariff Man returns and moreAfter 4 years of absence,Donald Trump is back in the hot seat as the president of the most powerful nation in the world.And with the Republican clean sweep of the control

5、of the US Senate and House of Representatives,this means it will be easier to implement policies for Trump.Our economic outlook for 2025 will now need to put a heavy dose of consideration for the myriad of policies that Trump has planned for US and their implications for the rest of the world.We adm

6、it a lot of the Trump policy measures(announcements,threats and/or projections)are highly speculative and unpredictable at this juncture and will be subject to significant changes once Trump officially comes into office on his 20 Jan(2025)inauguration.We broadly highlight a few categories of policy