1、HIGH BOND YIELDS:HERE TO STAY?ISSUE 135|February 5,2025|4:50 PM EST%Q%Global Macro ResearchInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to Goldman Sachs Gro

2、up,Inc.Despit e t he st art of l ong-await ed cent ral bank easing cycl es,G10 bond yiel ds have reset higher in recent mont hs,l ed by t he US.What account s for t his unusual behavior,and wil l yiel ds remain el evat ed amid t ariff and broader economic devel opment s?PGI M Fixed I ncome s Gregory

3、 Pet ers,MI T s Ricardo Cabal l ero,and GS David Mericl e and Wil l iam Marshal l express varying l evel s of sympat hy for t he drivers of t his reset:a reassessment of t he inflat ion/Fed out l ook,t he neut ral rat e,and t he t erm premium.Whil e Pet ers argues t hat persist ent l y above-t arget

4、 inflat ion shoul d hel p support 10y Treasury yiel ds cl oser t o t he t op end of t heir recent 3.5-5%range,Marshal l bel ieves t he furt her underl ying disinflat ion Mericl e expect s shoul d hel p yiel ds end t he year aroundor modest l y bel owcurrent l evel s.Looking furt her ahead,Cabal l er

5、o argues t hat 10y rat es coul d set t l e wel l bel ow current l evel s as he bel ieves t he fut ure neut ral rat e coul d prove l ower t han many t hink.But wit h t he risks skewed t oward higher rat es,we expl ore t he impl icat ions for risky asset s and port fol ios if bond yiel ds surge again.

6、“I NTERVI EWS WI TH:Gregory Peters,Co-Chief I nvest ment Officer,PGI M Fixed I ncome Ricardo Caballero,Professor of Economics,MI T David Mericle,Chief US Economist,Gol dman Sachs TERM PREMI A:NOT JUST A SUPPLY STORY Wil l iam Marshal l,GS US Rat es St rat egy Research NEUTRAL:FROM NOT AS LOW,TO NOT