1、Issue BriefDecember 2024Anticipating Biological RiskA Toolkit for Strategic Biosecurity PolicyAuthorSteph Batalis Center for Security and Emerging Technology|1 Executive Summary Biological threats from pathogens and toxins have the capacity to cause significant and widespread harm,regardless of whet

2、her they are natural or engineered,intentional or unintentional.Although recent news and policy discussions have focused on biological threats that are enhanced or enabled by artificial intelligence(AI),pathogens and toxins can already cause harm without this emerging technology.To counter biologica

3、l threats regardless of source,policymakers need a range of governance tools and mitigation measures upon which to draw.The first step in building such a toolkit is to understand what the process resulting in biological harm looks like for various scenarios.Then a suite of policy options can be asse

4、mbled to intervene at points throughout the process.This report addresses two generalized scenarios that can result in biological harm.The first outlines the steps that a malicious actor may take to intentionally generate and deploy a pathogen or toxin(marked with a target icon throughout the report

5、 ).The second describes actions that could result in an unintentional laboratory accident during legitimate scientific research(marked with a test tube icon ).Each scenario involves completing a series of planning and physical stages,which offer multiple opportunities to build policy toolkits with a

6、 variety of mechanisms.While describing each pathway,this report also takes stock of the many recommendations that have been made to strengthen U.S.biosecurity and biodefense,and maps these to the steps and scenarios where they would apply.In doing so,we identify governance gaps,along with opportuni