BARCLAYS：2024年全球宏观思考创造新的高峰（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1、Restricted-ExternalFOCUS20 May 2024Global Macro ThoughtsMaking new highsAjay Rajadhyaksha+1 212 412 BCI,USMax Kitson+44(0)20 3555 2386 Barclays,UK Kaanhari Singh+852 2903 Barclays Bank,Hong KongWhere noted in the source notes,the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published

2、 research.For further detail,including important disclosures and analyst certifications,please follow the links on each page and on page 8.This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports

3、prepared for retail investors under U.S.FINRA Rule 2242.Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients.Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFIC

4、ATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 9.FICC ResearchGlobal MacroRestricted-ExternalCompleted:20-May-24,10:58 GMT Released:20-May-24,11:03 GMTRestricted-ExternalThe world at a glance Global equities make a new high,while the bond rally continues The US hasnt softened very much,especiall

5、y on inflation The recent Chinese property measures are not a game-changer Making sense of it all,and a mea culpaRestricted-ExternalWe have seen this movie before on US inflationAt the end of 2023,6m core PCE inflation annualized was below 2%1o Y/y inflation was still 2.9%,but the Feds dovish turn s

6、eemed sparked by H2 inflation data o Financial conditions eased,the economy re-accelerated in Q1,and inflation surgedWe are not drawing a direct line between Q1 economic strength and Q1 inflation prints 1o The increases in shelter and auto insurance inflation,for example,seem more about catch-upo Bu