标准普尔全球移动：2023年全球轻型汽车生产展望中国主机厂的影响力越来越大（英文版）（26页）.pdf

1、 2023 S&P Global.Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Global.Global light vehicle production outlookThe growing influence of Chinese OEMsMark FulthorpeExecutive Director,Light Vehicle Production ForecastS&P Global Mobility2

2、4 October 2023 2023 S&P Global.Agenda2 Global outlook Where are we in the recovery and how has the landscape changed New trends emerging Regional overview Focus on Mainland China and its global impact Major regions review Summary 2023 S&P Global.3Shockwaves are ending,production is already sequentia

3、lly flat,annual growth will become marginalWhere are we in the cycle?2%-4%-7%-4%-32%1%29%-14%-1%15%12%4%3%-1%20253035404550H1 2018H2 2018H1 2019H2 2019H1 2020H2 2020H1 2021H2 2021H1 2022H2 2022H1 2023H2 2023H1 2024H2 2024%change year over yearMillionsInventory venting Pandemic/supply disruption/Ukra

4、ine Inventory build,back log Reconnect to demand Data compiled October 16,2023.Source:S&P Global Mobility Light Vehicle Production Forecast,October 2023.2023 S&P Global.420.719.921.422.018.719.022.222.722.016.621.522.321.322.221.221.922.723.121.82021202220232024202324 quaterly averageGlobal quarterl

5、y production(million units)Q1Q2Q3Q4Supply is tight but understood to meet upcoming production requirements;slightly ahead of sales activity Semiconductor crisis update,conditions continue to improve near termSupply capacityProduction forecast77.2 millions88.6 millions89.1 millions82.3 millionsSales

6、forecastData compiled October 16,2023.Source:S&P Global Mobility:October 2023 Light Vehicle Production and Sales Forecasts.2023 S&P Global.5Inventory pressure at the global level is starting to ease,regional variation continues to be a featureCurrent trend points to inventory approaching pre-crisis