标准普尔全球移动：2023年中国动力总成电气化展望（英文版）（22页）.pdf

1、 2023 S&P Global.Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Global.Chinese powertrain electrification outlookTony WangAPAC,Light Vehicle Powertrain Forecasting,DirectorS&P Global Mobility26 October 2023 2023 S&P Global.2ContentsW

2、hat has changed recently?Main changes in vehicle/powertrain regulationsMain changes in vehicle/powertrain marketCase study BYDs NEV development reviewHow will the market be reshaping in the future?Long term powertrain propulsion development Top OEMs xEV strategy analysisBEV market analysisHybrid mar

3、ket analysis 2023 S&P Global.3Note:Corporate Average Fuel Consumption(CAFC);Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Cycles(WLTC);Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure(WLTP);China Light-duty Vehicle Test Cycle Passenger Car(CLTC-P);New European Driving Cycle(NEDC)Source:MIIT publicationIC

4、Es:100%HEVsNEV credit requirements start;10%for 2019 and 12%for 2020Phase 4 of CAFC ends,target of 5 L/100km(NEDC)New NEV credit requirements start Transition from NEDC to WLTP and CLTC-PPhase 5 of CAFC ends,target of 4.6 L/100km(WLTC)Phase 5 of CAFC starts Low-fuel-consumption vehicle added into NE

5、V credit regulationNEV subsidy extended to 2022Phase 5 CAFC finalized202123:NEV credit requirements finalized:14%,16%,18%respectivelyExpected:Phase 6 of CAFCTest cycle shifts to CLTC-P TBDNEV regulationCAFC regulationCO2emission peaks in the auto industryTarget of 3.2 L/100km(WLTC)ICEs：5.6 L/100km(W

6、LTC)20%CO2reduction vs 2028Target of 2.0 L/100 km(WLTC)ICEs:4.8 L/100km(WLTC)50%+NEV salesICEs:75%HEVs ICEs:4.0 L/100 km(WLTC)40%NEV salesICEs:50%HEVs 20%NEV salesDual-credit regulationNEV/ESV Technology Roadmap 2.0 proposal released in Oct 20202019202020222024202120232025202820292035203020262027202