社会服务行业年度策略：否极泰来期待复苏-211231（26页）.pdf

1、 2021Q3 1,314.03 35.96 91.44 126.00 6300 -35%- 30%- 25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%2021/6/242021/7/82021/7/222021/8/52021/8/192021/9/22021/9/162021/9/302021/10/142021/10/282021/11/112021/11/252021/12/92021/12/23 300 棺 202123.64%20212019鴦 2021355.4120.8%11500232滮20253000衢踲 档 20202119壬2021棬20205.9229.416.62019

2、26%31%棬2022 19 2020 2021 2019202126.8939.1%201958.5%鷴仯2021棬2021141.371.733.6613.11.17.75202116121.439.9%1957.2%5.2201914.6%2022 K12 2021K12K9K12涼沢涨K9K9裬涨K12K122021 鷴 mNtNsQtNrNyQsQqMqRsOqN7N9R7NnPqQoMpNfQmMoPfQmMmQ9PoPpONZrQoRvPmPpO 3 . 5 . 8 2.1 . 8 2.2 . 10 2.3 19 . 15 K12 . 18 3.1 K12 . 18 3.2 K1

3、2 . 19 3.3 . 23 . 26 4 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 A . 6 4 . 7 5 . 7 6 2019-2021 . 9 7 2019-2021 . 9 8 2019-2021ADR/ . 11 9 2019-2021 OCC% . 12 10 2019-2021 RevPAR/ 12 11 2019-2020 . 13 12 2019-2020 . 13 13 2019-2021 . 13 14 2019-2020 . 14 15 2019-2020 . 14 16 2019-2020% . 14 17 2019-2020% . 14 18 2018-2021 . 16

4、19 2018-2021 . 17 20 A . 18 21 . 18 22 . 19 23 . 23 24/ . 24 25 2003-2020 IT . 25 26 2013-2022IT . 25 1 仯 . 20 2 . 21 3 . 22 5 20212021 1 1 12 13 23.64% 1 -30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%豸 淿 Wind 10.05%18.99%24.38%0.95% 6 2 15.04%12 .44%0.95% 0.36%- 0.93%- 10.05%- 18.99%- 24.38%-30%-25%-20%-15%-1

5、0%-5%0%5%10%15%20% Wind 2021A 9.36%仦 300 6.91pct43.53%31.50pct73.67%50097.98pctK12K12 3 A -20%-15 %-10%-5%0%5%10%15%A 300 Wind 7 4 -50%-40 %-30%-20%-10%0%10%20% Wind 5 -100 %-80%-60%-40%-20 %0%20%40%60% 500 Wind 8 2.1 2021 355.4 120.8% 11 500 232 滮 2025 3000 衢踲 鲻2021355.4120.8%135.7+355.7%yoy132.0+1

6、92.2%yoy,887.82.0%513.184.5%130.8+1.4%yoy2021 14.7 +66.9%yoy 18 +61.6%yoy11 5002322022 9 6 2019-2021 -50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0204060801001201401602019320195201972019920191120201202032020520207202092020112021120213202152021720219 Wind 7 2019-2021 -50 %0%50%100%150%200%0501001502002502019