【公司研究】中科电气-量价齐升的赛道蓬勃成长的新星-20200622[37页].pdf

1、 / 1)+ 60% 2019 7.0475.8%2.7474.3% 2) 2020/2021/2022 257/332/420 GWh26/33/43 70% 2019CR579% 3)CATLSKI 2CATL SKISKI SKI 2020-202211.915.719.8 2.12.73.3PE292218 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 619 929 1,194 1,566 1,981 (+/-)% 47.22% 50.02% 28.53% 31.18% 26.48% 130 151 209 271 332 (+/-)% 174.54% 15.99% 3

2、8.18% 29.59% 22.65% 0.20 0.24 0.33 0.42 0.52 22.16 33.41 28.76 22.19 18.09 2.32 2.62 2.81 2.49 2.19 (%) 10.46% 7.84% 9.76% 11.23% 12.11% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 518 641 642 642 642 2020/6/19 6 12 9.36 12 4.8810.55 6,009 642 A 642 B/H 0/0 25 -16% 2% 20% 38% 56% 74% 2019/62019/92019/12202

3、0/3 % 1M 3M 12M 33% 33% 61% 29% 18% 51% 2020-03-12 2020-02-29 2020-01-08 S0550516050002 021-20361230 021-20361230 S0550119070009 021-20361241 300035 2020-06-22 2 / 37 1. . 4 1.1. . 4 1.2. . 5 . 7 2.1. 7 2.1.1. 7 2.1.2. . 11 2.2. . 13 2.2.1. . 13 2.2.2. . 14 2.3. . 15 2.3.1. 16 2.3.2. . 16 3. . 17 3.

4、1. . 17 3.2. . 20 3.2.1.1 . 20 3.2.2.2 . 22 3.3. . 25 4. . 33 4.1. . 33 4.2. . 34 3 / 37 4 / 37 1. 1) + 2) 60% 3) 20197.04 75.8%2.7474.3% 1.1. 2009 1225 1 2004 2007 2008 2009 2009 2012 2017 2018 2019 5 / 37 + + 1.2. =+ EMS2017 20197.0475.8% EMS2.0421.9%0.212.3% 2017EMS2016 96.9% 1 Wind 6 / 37 2 Wind

5、 2019 2.7474.3%20172019 100%EMS0.9425.4% 2017EMS20152016 90.9%96.6% 3 Wind 7 / 37 EMS EMS2017-2019 EMS50% 201728.7%201938.9% EMS 60% 1) 2020/2021/2022257/332/420 GWh26/33/43 2) 70% 2019CR579% 3) 4) 80% 2.1. 2.1.1. =+3C+* 125%42% 2025700 8 / 37 2021-20352025 25%25002025 700 40%2020 130 4 GGIIWind 202

6、5600 MEB 2 202870201914 ID20212020MEB 60 20222030 2039 202515%-25%202325 202020%2022100e-Power e-Power30% 2030450 2022 2020 10-25% 9 / 37 5GWh GGIIBNEFWind 201736 GWh201856 GWh 201962 GWh 202070 GWh2017 18 GWh201834 GWh201950 GWh202072 GWh 2020202125%42% 23C5G 3C3C 2018 19GWh53GWh 35%3C 3C iPhone 11