1、Chief Economists OutlookCentre for the New Economy and SocietyJanuary 20252Chief Economists OutlookDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to aproject,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of

2、 a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.2025 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication

3、may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookJanuary 2025This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations an

4、d surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors,organized by the World Economic Forums Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers an

5、d business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events.The survey featured in this briefing wasconducted in late November 2024.4Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary _ 51.Downside risks have risen _ 72.All eyes on the US _

6、143.Global integration under growing strain _ 18Domestic and international policy drivers _ 18The challenges of fragmentation _ 204.A turbulent year for trade _ 23Trade-war dynamics set to intensify _ 23The shift to services trade continues _ 25References _ 28Contributors _ 33Acknowledgements _ 34Co