量化与大流行相关的行为变化对公交乘客量的影响.pdf

1、Quantifying the Effects of Pandemic Related Behavioral Changes on Transit RidershipGopindra Sivakumar Nair,Arash Mirzaei,Hua Yang06-06-2023MotivationConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningSubstantial drop in transit ridership between 2019 and 2022Cause of ridership change Demograph

2、ic Change Travel behavior change Transit network changeAdjust future year scenarios based on new behaviorTransit Systems in NCTCOG AreaConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and Planning 13 Counties Area:10,430 mi2 Population 2022:8,023,085Average Weekday Transit RidershipConference on Innovat

3、ions in Travel Analysis and PlanningModel Calibration-2019Conference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and Planning Add content hereModel Backcast Validation-2014 Add content hereConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningForecast-2022 Add content hereConference on Innovations in Trave

4、l Analysis and PlanningDART Ridership ErrorConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and Planning20192022FWTA Ridership ErrorConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and Planning20192022020000400006000080000100000120000140000BusRailBusRailObservedModel20192022Ridership ChangeConference on Inn

5、ovations in Travel Analysis and Planning20192022%ChangeObservedBus136,72480,708-41%Rail104,09961,409-41%ModelBus126,069128,7402%Rail101,706110,9169%Population ChangeConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and Planning20192022%ChangeRegion7,517,6418,023,085 6.7%Dallas2,556,638 2,704,160 5.8%Tarr

6、ant2,053,796 2,181,830 6.2%Employment ChangeConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and Planning20192022%ChangeRegion5,278,925 5,626,353 6.6%Dallas2,365,381 2,516,766 6.4%Tarrant1,331,384 1,423,963 7.0%Service ChangeYearNumber of RoutesFare Miles per Hour(Peak)Fare Miles per Hour(Off-Peak)DARTF