在温哥华迈向基于活动的模式.pdf

1、Moving toward activity-based models in Metro VancouverBo Wen,Senior Modeler,TransLinkOur Modeling RegionConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningEvolving planning needsConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningAM Peak Model(Work)Mode Share1980Truck Model1990Park and Ri

2、deAdditional Trip PurposesUpdated VDFsPM Peak ModelHOV Model201020002020 to presentGVRD Rapid Transit StudyEMME/224-Hr Demand ModelActive ModeAccessibilityReliability&AgglomerationFirst Screenline&Trip DiaryActivity-based ModelsExpo&Van-Richmond LineRegional Modeling ReviewMillennium,Evergreen Line

3、Richmond-AirportTrnp.Model Enhancement Prg.Transport 2040Transport 2050Tolling Studies(Gateway Program)New Mobility EV&AVWFHEquityTDM,Discounts&RebatesEarly RTMRTM2RTM3FORTRANRTM-RTSThe Regional Transportation Model(RTM)Traditional four-step model 9 trip purposes 24-hour demand model Nested Logit Tr

4、ip Mode Choice 3 assignment periods(AM,MD,PM)4 vehicle classes with 9 vot classes 7 transit modes Additional modules Regional trucks Car share CAV&TNC adoptions Uncertainty analysisConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningTrip SimulationConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis an

5、d Planning Disaggregate trip outputs1.Simulated base year(SBY)with TD+RTM2.Simulated future year(SFY)with RTM+SBY destination choice is updated only if the original destination worsened(“stickiness”)Limitations No scheduling and a lack of temporal resolution Disaggregate output follows aggregate dis

6、tribution by segments Does not model behaviors explicitly Disaggregate data still carry any biases from the aggregate distributionsKey considerationsConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningNeeds AssessmentDo we need a new model?Options EvaluationModel paradigmsModel platformsAction