FSA 气候变化对人寿和健康保险索赔的影响.pdf

1、SINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Avoid filling this space with text,will not be seen by audienceLIFE&HEALTH SCENARIOS of CLIMATE CHANGETerry Narine,FSA,FCIASINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024 Insurers have a mixed view on the level of priority to place on climate

2、change with 55%rating as“low”or“no priority”and 45%rating as“moderate”or“high”priority 55%of respondents believe that climate change will have a material impact on their business in the next 5 to 10 years 58%of insurers in the survey either have implemented or plan to implement a sustainability prog

3、ram to manage the risks and opportunities from climate change Insurers largely involve their Risk(85%of respondents)and Regulatory and Reporting functions(50%)to understand and manage associated SINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024NETWORK FOR GREENING THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM NGFS SCENAR

4、IOS Used by Central Banks and Supervisors NGFS Scenarios Portal NGFS Scenarios a window into different plausible futures Central banks and supervisors explore impacts to economy,financial system Seven Scenarios:Orderly Net Zero 2050,Below 2*C,Low Demand Disorderly Delayed Transition Hot House World

5、Nationally Determined Contributions,Current Policies Too-Little-Too-Late Fragmented World Include these scenarios in pricing,valuation and ORSA stress-SINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024ACTUWIT MODEL A model to determine extra life and health claims from climate change by country Pr

6、oducts include Life,Disability,Critical Illness,Cancer,Hospitalizations,and LTC Extra claims would be modeled in Pricing,Valuation and ORSA Stress-testing Two key assumptions-CO2emissions and health care costs,lung cancer from pollution.An extra 10%of lung cancers will be caused