莱坊：《上海工业市场报告》报告2018Q3(7页).pdf

1、SHANGHAI INduStrIAl MArket report Q3 2018 上海工业市场季度报告 2018 年第三季度 RESEARCH 研究报告 32 RESEARCHSHAngHAi induStRiAl MARKEt REPORt Q3 2018 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12

2、Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 growth rate % RMB/sqm/day Logistics rent (left)Q-o-Q growth rate (right) According to China Federation of Logistics Utilised FDI achieved US$4.3

3、83 billion, a decrease of 5.2% Y-o-Y. Due to land scarcity, we expect that logistics warehouse rents will grow steadily with an increase of 3% to 4% quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q); industrial factory rents will increase by 2% to 3% Q-o-Q in a year. Since many logistics warehouses are to be delivered in

4、the fourth quarter (Q4), the vacancy rate of logistics warehouse will increase slightly to 9%. loGIStICS propertIeS Source: knight Frank research eNterING tHe trAdItIoNAl oFF-SeASoN, tHe loGIStICS propertY MArket SeeN doMINAted BY WAIt-ANd-See plAYerS As the traditional off-season occurs in the thir

5、d quarter (Q3), various macro- economic indicators saw growth slowdown and the market witnessed fewer new leases in the industrial property market. rents of logistics warehouse and industrial factory remained stable. FIGure 1 Average rent and Q-o-Q growth rate of logistics warehouse properties, Q3 2

6、018 stricter, making some potential occupiers adopt wait-and-see attitude or choose to lease warehouses outside Shanghai. Therefore, Shanghai logistics warehouse rent in Q3 remained unchanged over the last quarter at RMB1.55 per sqm per day. The vacancy rate of logistics warehouse also stayed flat a