FTI Consulting：2017年美国在线零售市场预测报告.pdf

1、CRITICAL THINKING AT THE CRITICAL TIME The U.S. Online Retail Forecast FTI Consulting, Inc.1 October 2015 A, the pioneer in online retailing, celebrated its 20th anniversary this past July, and such a momentous occasion merits some reflection. When it opened its virtual doors in 1995, Amazon called

2、itself the Earths Biggest Bookstore. Internet usage among U.S. adults back then was 14% compared with 87% currently according to the Pew Research Center. Today, Amazons domestic sales are $51 billion, making it the ninth largest U.S. retailer. Its success is an ever-present reminder that the online

3、channel has revolutionized retailing. But this anniversary also reminds us that despite its spry appearance, online shopping has hit middle age not in the sense of longevity but in its potential to capture market share at extraordinary rates. Overall, online sales growth remains strong but is decele

4、rating Exhibit 1 as are market share gains. Both are evidence of a slowing, which invariably accompanies middle age and which will become more apparent over the next few years. We expect U.S. online sales to hit $340 billion this year and $380 billion in 2016 (compared with $300 billion last year) a

5、nd eventually reach $550 billion in 2020 a compound annual growth rate of 10.6% with online market share of retail sales approaching 17% by the end of the decade compared with 10% in 2014. Make no mistake about it; These are impressive growth figures considering how large the online retail channel a

6、lready has become, but these numbers also reflect the realities of a medium that is maturing. The majority of large, store-based retailers have demonstrated they can build a thriving online business. In reality, most of these sales are coming at the expense of their own stores, and the incremental i