埃森哲：2020年石油天然气市场应对展望- 埃森哲（英文版）（8页）.pdf

1、What concurrent supply and demand shocks mean and how to respond THE ONE-TWO PUNCH FOR OIL MARKETS Muqsit Ashraf, Manas Satapathy, Vivek Chidambaram THE ONE-TWO PUNCH FOR OIL MARKETS The oil and gas (O XOP = E XLE = Energy; SPY = S&P Whats different this time around? Simultaneous demand contraction

2、and a concurrent ramp-up in supply is unprecedented. We are in uncharted waters, and it isnt clear who will win this game of brinkmanship. We expect current low prices to prevail and quite possibly drop even further if OPEC+ continues the flood-the-market stance given the demand destruction and resu

3、lting oversupply (Figure 3). Figure 3 Oversupply without OPEC+ cuts can push prices to very low levels in the short-term The O&G industry was already in a state of disruption leading up to these events. Sector returns were under pressure, capital was flowing out of the industry, and decarbonization

4、headwinds were strengthening to capital increases. North American operators in particular were in a more precarious position than they were in 2014. Capital availability had almost dried outinvestors were cheering capital cuts and penalizing capital expansion. Oil stocks were being hammered across t

5、he board and were even below 2014 levels (Figure 4). Source: Accenture analysis. Marginal Cash Cost ($/Barrel) Supply-Demand Balance (million bpd) 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 -4-3-2-10123456789 Oversupply Demand Driven OPEC+ Oversupply Planned Supply Tight Market OPEC+ Oversupply What will still rem

6、ain the same? Despite chatter about peak O&G markets and until recent events threw the market into a tailspin, the demand for both oil and gas was growing. Also, once the global economy stabilizes theres no indication that growth wont return as the world still needs oil and gas to sustain developmen