埃森哲：COVID9与信贷危机 -埃森哲（英文版）（30页）.pdf

1、NOWNEXT July 2020 OUTMANEUVERUNCERTAINTY How Banks Can Prepare for the Looming Credit Crisis 2 BANKS HAVE A CRUCIAL ROLE TO PLAY BUT WILL NEED TO PROCEED WITH CAUTION Banks around the world face an imminent credit crisis, ignited by COVID-19. Unlike the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, when banks were

2、the villains who triggered the crisis, the next few years will offer an opportunity for banks to be heroes. The world needs them to help absorb the economic impact of the pandemic and work with governments and other agencies to stimulate a rapid recovery. But to do so, retail and commercial banks mu

3、st navigate a careful path. They will need to view credit risk in an objective and analytical way, while being creative and far-sighted about how best to manage that risk to both their own advantage and the broader benefit of the societies in which they operate. In this report we propose four key ac

4、tions that banks should consider taking as they navigate that path. 3 The height of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis was primarily a liquidity event in which financial institutions failed when they were unable to fund their balance sheets. Central banks learned the lesson and, as the COVID-19 crisis

5、 mushroomed, they flooded credit markets with liquidity through broad-based bond buying programs, international swap lines, and other financial instruments. But while there have been no Lehman-like earthquakes, another financial disaster in the form of a rising wave of credit defaults is now visible

6、 on the horizon and is threatening to swamp the banking system. A credit crisis is approaching 4 With mandatory shutdowns, supply chain disruptions, and travel restrictions, many businesses have been devastated by COVID-19. Unemployment in countries around the globe has hit record highsfor example,