1、Issue BriefDecember 2024Staying Current with Emerging Technology TrendsUsing Big Data to Inform PlanningAuthorsEmelia S.ProbascoChristian SchoeberlStaying Current with Emerging Technology TrendsUsing Big Data to Inform PlanningAuthorsEmelia S.ProbascoChristian Schoeberl Center for Security and Emerg

2、ing Technology|1 Table of Contents Introduction.2 Background.3 Prior Research.3 CSETs Merged Corpus,Research Clusters,and ETO Map of Science.3 Cluster Features and Metadata.4 Methodology.5 Step 1.Finding Papers Relevant to an Organization.6 Steps 2 and 3.Analyzing the Clusters.8 Finding Candidate Cl

3、usters of Interest.8 Growth.9 Clusters Exporting Ideas.9 Step 4.Select and Present a Subset of Clusters for Human Review.11 Presenting Clusters and Communicating Data Limitations.12 Step 5.Engaging Subject Matter Experts.24 Proof-of-Concept Discussion Results.25 SME Workshop Participant Observations

4、 and Takeaways.26 Conclusion and Future Applications of This Approach.28 Authors.31 Acknowledgments.31 Appendix A:Using the Characteristics of Papers Within Clusters to Identify Relevant Clusters.32 Concentration Metric Limitations.32 Core or Highly Cited Papers.34 Corpus Paper Exporting.34 Appendix

5、 B:Establishing Percentiles.35 Appendix C:CSETs AI Classifier.36 Using the AI Classifier.36 Appendix D:Discussion Guide.37 Endnotes.38 Center for Security and Emerging Technology|2 Introduction Decision-makers today are pressed to stay ahead of the tsunami of new science and technology research.Many

6、 hope that big data and artificial intelligence(AI)will help identify research evolutions and revolutions in real time,or even before they happen.As we will discuss below,data alone cannot predict scientific revolutions.Examining data to stay current with,or slightly ahead of,new technologies,howeve