1、 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON MALARIA IN AFRICANovember 2024TABLE OF CONTENTS12.1 ADDITIONAL MALARIA BACKGROUND.2912.2 COMPREHENSIVE MODELING METHODS.3112.3 LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS.3612.4 ADDITIONAL RESULTS.37ORGANIZATIONS,AUTHORS,AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.441EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.12HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE IMPA

2、CT MALARIA?.23AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO SEE MORE FLOODING AND SEVERECYCLONES THROUGH 2050 DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE.84CLIMATE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO OVER 550,000 ADDITIONAL MALARIA DEATHS FROM 2030 TO 2049.95CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES THE FRAGILITY OF GAINSMADE THROUGH HEAVY SUPPRESSION OF MALARIA.126C

3、LIMATE CHANGE MAKES ERADICATION MORE DIFFICULT.147DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS:CONFLICT AND MIGRATION.168INVESTMENT IS NEEDED TO MINIMIZE ADDITIONAL CLIMATE-RELATED MALARIA DEATHS.189AVERTING CLIMATE-RELATED MALARIA DEATHSAND ERADICATING MALARIA IN A WARMING WORLD.2010INVESTMENT IN MALARIA ERADICATION IS ESSE

4、NTIAL.2411REFERENCES.2512APPENDIX.28the projected mortality increase.The model showed that most countries are predicted to see increases in malaria deaths under long-onset climate change alone and that extreme weather exacerbates this increase.Ten countries that would have expected a decrease in mal

5、aria deaths due to the reduction of vectorial capacity from rising temperatures associated with long-onset climate change are instead predicted to experience an overall increase in malaria deaths with the addition of extreme weather.Gains achieved through increased coverage of existing interventions

6、 will be harder to sustain under climate change in the futureas much as 17%of the impact of full intervention coverage could be lost due to disruptions from climate change.Additionally,1.3 billion people in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to live in places where eradication will become harder under