1、The Five Forces Transforming Power Markets September 2024 By Tom Brijs,Maurice Berns,Zsfia Beck,Anders Porsborg-Smith,Vivian Lee,Phil Hirschhorn,Tom Baker,and Jonas Geerinck1 THE FIVE FORCES TRANSFORMING POWER MARKETS The Five Forces Transforming Power MarketsThe resulting changes will have huge imp

2、lications for market participants.To adequately prepare for the global energy sys-tem of tomorrow,players need to understand how power market dynamics are evolving today.BCGs Center for Energy Impact has developed a proprietary model to explore changes in energy markets based on different possible s

3、cenarios,and we have applied it to Europe for this publication.Two key policy initiatives form the backbone of our assumptions:the EUs Fit for 55 pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55%by 2030(from 2021 levels),and its ambition to achieve net zero by 2050.In addition,we have modeled d

4、ifferent scenarios by varying natural gas price levels,renewables deployment,and interconnector buildouts.We are confident that the market developments we have found will hold true in most circumstances.However,as always,several highly disruptive events could potentially throw our analyses concernin

5、g 2030 and 2050 off course.These are:A substantial weakening of global climate ambitions A crisis in energy demand or supplyas occurred with the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine The widespread adoption of a new form of market design that is not based on marginal prices A breakthrough in low-

6、carbon energy technologies such as nuclear fusion and long-duration energy storage A radical change in technological cost projections and learn-ing curves Furthermore,while the focus of our analysis is mainly on north-west Europe,we believe that some of these developments could also apply in most ot