1、Global Economic Research02 August 2024J P M O R G A NContentsPolitics and monetary independence13Australia:Class dismissed22The unbearable lightness of Chinas nominal GDP25ASEAN external liquidity buffers:ample but divergent29 Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Economic Activi

2、ty Tracking8Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics10J.P.Morgan Market Watch11 Data Watches United States32 Focus:Job finding and rising unemployment37Euro area38Japan45Canada49Mexico51Brazil53Argentina55Andeans57United Kingdom59Emerging Europe63South Africa68Australia and New Zealand69Ch

3、ina,Hong Kong,and Taiwan71Korea75ASEAN77India81 Regional Data Calendars53Economic and Policy ResearchBruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NANora Szentivanyi(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcGlobal Data WatchInteraction of rising growth and fadin

4、g labor cost risk points to faster FedStep-down in July global manufacturing surveys is broad-based BoJ on track toward 1%policy rate as Japan growth moves toward 2%Next week:All-ind PMI dips;RBA,RBI on hold;Banxico cuts 25bpAnything and everythingWhen asked what could go wrong with a macroeconomic

5、forecast,the appropriate answer is always“anything and everything.”Our narrative foresees resilient US and global expansions in which growth downshifts to a trend-like pace amid a broadening regional and sectoral base.Meanwhile we expect core inflation to remain sticky above central bank targets.The

6、 space for central bank easing has thus been anticipated to be limited.Recent releases challenge each of these views.The most important news is in the US where rising downside growth risks have been accompanied by moderating labor market pressures.Although the FOMC guided toward a gradual policy eas