1、 This report is the English version of the“Korea Economic Outlook”published on May 29,2024.Please contact the Research Department at the email address below if you have any questions regarding the contents or would like to request permission in advance for reproducing or copying the contents of this

2、 report for commercial purposes.Please credit the source when quoting,reproducing,or copying the contents of this report for non-commercial purposes.Research Department,Business Cycle Team,Bank of Korea econtrendbok.or.kr Contents Executive Summary .Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook 1.Domestic an

3、d International Economic Conditions Global Economy Koreas Economy Main Premises of the Baseline Outlook 2.Macroeconomic Outlook for Korea Economic Growth Current Account Prices Employment 3.Risk Assessment Key Risks to the Outlook Distribution of Growth Projections by Major Institutions Scenario Ana

4、lysis 1 1 7 12 13 13 18 20 23 25 25 25 26 Box 1 Assessment of Recent G2 Economic Situations and Implications Box 2 Assessment of Recent Semiconductor Business Cycle 28 35 .Key Issues High Prices and Consumption:With a Focus on the Heterogeneous Impact of the Household Consumption Basket and Financia

5、l Assets 39 .In-Depth Analysis Innovation and Economic Growth:Review of Korean Firms Innovation Performance 56 Appendix.Key Indicators 104 i Executive Summary In 2024,Koreas real GDP is expected to grow by 2.5%,higher than the previous forecast of 2.1%in February,as the recovery momentum of exports

6、strengthened and improvement in consumption has been better than previously anticipated.While upward pressure on consumer price inflation has increased due to a better-than-expected growth,it is not large enough to revise the February forecast(2.6%headline,2.2%core)considering a modest consumption r