经济展望.pdf

1、Markets(and World)on EdgePrepared by Stephen P.NicholsonPrepared by Stephen P.NicholsonEVP/Global Sector StrategistEVP/Global Sector Strategist-Grains and OilseedsGrains and OilseedsRaboResearch Food&AgribusinessRaboResearch Food&AgribusinessJanuary 2024January 2024Blk ItTable of ContentsSectionsIMa

2、cro LookIIWheatIIICornIVSoybeans5I.Macro LookBlk ItMarkets and the World is Like a Spinning Rubiks CubeAfter years of relative peace and prosperity,it seems everything is changingSource:11/26/23 Issue of Barrons,Rabobank 2024WeatherWeatherU.S.China TensionsU.S.China TensionsRussia/Ukrainian WarRussi

3、a/Ukrainian WarCanadian/Indian TensionsCanadian/Indian TensionsLimited Available Arable LandLimited Available Arable LandRebuilding&Tight StocksRebuilding&Tight StocksConcentration of Production&ExportsConcentration of Production&ExportsGrowing Domestic DemandGrowing Domestic DemandChallenging Expor

4、t EnvironmentChallenging Export EnvironmentPriorityPriority-Food SecurityFood SecurityGrain Sector ConsolidationGrain Sector ConsolidationFuture of BioFuture of Bio-FuelsFuelsFood vs Fuel vs Feed vs Climate ChangeFood vs Fuel vs Feed vs Climate ChangeLogisticsLogisticsProducer Margins/ProfitabilityP

5、roducer Margins/ProfitabilityBull or Bear MarketBull or Bear MarketTensions Reignited in Middle EastTensions Reignited in Middle EastInterest RatesInterest RatesElection YearElection YearWater Supply/QualityWater Supply/QualitySoil Health/ResilienceSoil Health/ResilienceBlk ItIt is a Mixed Bag of Gl

6、obal Economic Growth Excluding COVID,global economies are emerging from 20-years of relative stability and entering a time of greater uncertainty.Source:IMF,October 2023,Rabobank 2024ASEAN-5 includes Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand&Vietnam*Projections-12.0-10.0-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0