1、 gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 In search of a catalyst gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 02 Contents A market in search of a catalyst 3 Setting the record straight 4 H2:inflection ahead?4 A(largely)efficient market 4 Western investors:wanted 5 Emerging markets:gains and pains 6 Connecting th

2、e dots 7 gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 03 A market in search of a catalyst Gold has performed remarkably well in 2024,rising by 12%y-t-d and outpacing most major asset classes.Gold has thus far benefitted from continued central bank buying,Asian investment flows,resilient consumer demand,and a

3、 steady drumbeat of geopolitical uncertainty.As we look forward,the key question in investors minds is whether golds momentum can continue or if its running out of steam.With a few exceptions,the global economy is showing wavering growth indicators eager for rate cuts amid lower but still uncomforta

4、ble inflation.And the markets outlook is not too dissimilar.Our analysis suggests that the gold price today broadly reflects consensus expectations for the second half of the year.However,things rarely go according to plan.And the global economy,as well as gold,seem to be waiting for a catalyst.For

5、gold,we believe the catalyst could come from falling rates in developed markets,that attract Western investment flows,as well as continued support from global investors looking to hedge bubbling risks amid a complacent equity market and persistent geopolitical tensions.Golds outlook is,of course,not

6、 without risks.A sizable drop in central bank demand or widespread profit-taking from Asian investors could curtail its performance.As it stands,however,global investors continue to benefit from golds role in robust asset allocation strategies.Chart 1:Gold remains one of the best performing assets o