1、 March 2024 OIES Paper:NG 189 Outlook for Russias oil and gas production and exports James Henderson,Distinguished Research Fellow,OIES Vitaly Yermakov,Senior Research Fellow,OIES Richard Connolly,Director,Eastern Advisory Group i The contents of this paper are the authors sole responsibility.They d

2、o not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members.The contents of this paper are the authors sole responsibility.They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members.Copyright 2024 Oxford Ins

3、titute for Energy Studies(Registered Charity,No.286084)This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder,provided acknowledgment of the source is made.No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any oth

4、er commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.ISBN 978-1-78467-235-5 ii The contents of this paper are the authors sole responsibility.They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of

5、its Members.Contents Figures.ii Tables.iii UKERC Research on the Geopolitics of Energy System Transformation.iv Analytical Framework.iv Introduction and Overview.1 1.Outlook for Russian Oil.5 1.1 Introduction.5 1.2 Russian oil reserves.5 1.3 Russias fiscal policies:systematic upstream incentives at

6、last.7 1.4“New Oil”versus“Old Oil”.8 1.5 Western sanctions and technological dependency of the Russian oil sector.10 1.6 Russian oil production by company.11 1.7 Russias oil production by region.13 1.8 Vostok Oil:Russias flagship new oil project.16 1.9 Estimates of Russian oil output to 2030.17 1.10