1、 BIS Working Papers No 1179 The impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflation by Iaki Aldasoro,Sebastian Doerr,Leonardo Gambacorta and Daniel Rees Monetary and Economic Department April 2024 JEL classification:E31,J24,O33,O40.Keywords:artificial intelligence,generative AI,inflation,outpu

2、t,productivity,monetary policy.BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements,and from time to time by other economists,and are published by the Bank.The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in chara

3、cter.The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS.This publication is available on the BIS website(www.bis.org).Bank for International Settlements 2024.All rights reserved.Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated.

4、ISSN 1020-0959(print)ISSN 1682-7678(online)The impact of artificial intelligence onoutput and inflationI AldasoroBISS DoerrBIS&CEPRL GambacortaBIS&CEPRD ReesBISApril 11,2024AbstractThis paper studies the effects of artificial intelligence(AI)on sectoral and aggregateemployment,output and inflation i

5、n both the short and long run.We construct anindex of industry exposure to AI to calibrate a macroeconomic multi-sector model.Building on studies that find significant increases in workers output from AI,wemodel AI as a permanent increase in productivity that differs by sector.We findthat AI signifi

6、cantly raises output,consumption and investment in the short andlong run.The inflation response depends crucially on households and firms an-ticipation of the impact of AI.If they do not anticipate higher future productivity,AI adoption is initially disinflationary.Over time,general equilibrium forc