1、A national forecast to 2050ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK CHINA 202423DNV Energy Transition China 2024 CONTENTSHIGHLIGHTSNo one who has visited China regularly over the past decade or so,as I have done,will have failed to notice the skies above the cities becoming clearer and the streets increasingly fil

2、led with electric cars and buses.These are the visible signs of a vast decarbonization effort taking place in China.From a position where,in 2023,China was responsible for a third of the worlds energy-related CO2 emissions,by 2050 that share will have reduced to a fifth.In absolute terms,Chinas emis

3、sions will reduce by a staggering 70%.As we show in this Outlook,this is related mainly to the replacement of coal by renewables in the power mix and the electrification of end-use demand.In 2022,China was responsible for 35%of solar and 40%of wind power capacity additions globally.Moreover,its high

4、 relative contribution of renewable capacity additions will continue all the way through to mid-century.The rollout of efficient,clean green electricity is not only a boon to the citizens of China but will profoundly impact the global push for clean energy.In the next three decades,China will move u

5、p the rankings from 6th place currently to rivalling OECD Asia Pacific as the most-electrified region globally.Continued electrification,coupled with a policy-driven push for energy efficiency will see final energy demand peak in 2030 and fall by 20%by 2050,despite the rising prosperity of Chinese h

6、ouseholds.The structural economic shift towards a more automated manufacturing base and a larger service sector will also impact the nature and scale of energy demand.Energy independence is the key motivation behind Chinas energy policy.We find that this is only partly achieved by mid-century,when C