1、Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making thei

2、r investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.EQUITYEQUITYRESEARCH|RESEARCH|January 8,2024|10:13PM C

3、STA year after we laid our initial expectations for global humanoid robot TAM of US$6bn,we raise our 2035 TAM forecast to US$38bn resulting from a 4-fold increase in our shipments estimate to 1.4mn units with a much faster path to profitability on a 40%reduction in bill of materials.We believe our r

4、evised shipment estimate would cover 10%-15%of hazardous,dangerous and auto manufacturing roles.AI acceleration,technology breakthroughs,greater capex investments are the key drivers of our forecast changes.Improved technological viability is supported by incorporation of end-to-end AIand multi-moda

5、l AI algorithms enabling much faster product iterations,leadingplayers sooner-than-expected progress(e.g.,Tesla Optimus Gen 2),and bettercapabilities of the robots though possibility for a general purpose AI robot is still aquestion;BOM cost trended down likely by 40%to$150k per unit in 2023 from c.

6、$250k a year ago for high spec robots mainly driven by availability of cheapercomponents with broader scope of domestic supply chain options from the bestperformance components used in labs previously,implying a likely acceleration infactory application viability timeline by one year and consumer ap