1、 Artificial Intelligence for National Security:The Predictability Problem Mariarosaria Taddeo,Marta Ziosi,Andreas Tsamados,Luca Gilli and Shalini Kurapati September 2022 Mariarosaria Taddeo,Marta Ziosi,Andreas Tsamados,Luca Gilli and Shalini Kurapati 1 ABOUT CETAS AND THE OXFORD INTERNET INSTITUTE 2

2、 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 1.INTRODUCTION 9 2.THE PREDICTABILITY PROBLEM 13 3.ROOT CAUSES OF THE MAXIMAL PREDICTABILITY PROBLEM 17 3.1 MACHINE LEARNING 20 3.2 DATA 22 3.3 TECHNICAL DEBT 24 4.ROOT CAUSES OF THE MINIMAL PREDICTABILITY PROBLEM 26 4.1 HMT-AI AND HUMAN-MACHINE INTERFACE 28 4

3、.2 TRAINING 29 4.3 TRUST AND TRUSTWORTHINESS 33 4.4 LEVELS OF TRUST IN HMT-AI 35 5.ADDRESSING THE PREDICTABILITY PROBLEM WITH GOOD GOVERNANCE 37 5.1 CONTROL,OVERSIGHT AND VALUE ALIGNMENT 39 5.2 THE RESOURCE BOOSTING APPROACH:THE RISK OF OVERLOOKING PREDICTABILITY TRADE-OFFS 42 5.3 TRUSTWORTHINESS:UN

4、JUSTIFIED TRUST IN THE FACE OF THE PREDICTABILITY PROBLEM 46 5.4 A NOTABLE ABSENCE:RISK THRESHOLDS FOR UNPREDICTABLE AI AND THE PREDICTABILITY OF RISKS 48 5.5 AN ALARP-BASED FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS THE RISK OF UNPREDICTABLE AI 51 6.CONCLUSION 55 APPENDIX GLOSSARY 57 ABOUT THE AUTHORS 62 Artificial Intel

5、ligence for National Security:The Predictability Problem 2 About CETaS and the Oxford Internet Institute The Centre for Emerging Technology and Security(CETaS)is a policy research centre based at The Alan Turing Institute,the UKs national institute for data science and artificial intelligence.The Ce

6、ntres mission is to inform UK security policy through evidence-based,interdisciplinary research on emerging technology issues.Connect with CETaS at cetas.turing.ac.uk.The Oxford Internet Institute founded in 2001 is a multidisciplinary research and teaching department of the University of Oxford,ded