1、08图1-3 美国各类资产的长期收益(19262023 年)该图纵坐标为对数坐标系数据来源：SBBI 2024$100000$10000$1000$100$10$1$0.11925 年底2023 年底1945 年底1965 年底1985 年底2005 年底$132 长期国债（年化5.1%)$57,817 小盘股（年化11.8%)$14,569大盘股（年化10.3%)$236长期信用债（年化5.7%)$23 短期国债（年化3.3%)$17 通货膨胀（年化2.9%)19262023 这 98 年，美国大盘股的年化收益率为 10.3%，小盘股 11.8%，长期信用债为 5.7%，长期国债为 5.1%

2、，短期国债为 3.3%，通货膨胀为 2.9%。从美国资本市场长期历史来看：股票的长期收益最好。股票的长期收益高于债券。小盘股的长期收益高于大盘股。长期国债的长期收益高于短期国债。股票和长期国债的长期收益可以战胜通货膨胀。中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023

3、年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报中国大类资产投资 2023 年报图2-6 中国短期国

4、债的年化收益率与滚动收益率(20052023 年)200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320052.46%2.13%2.08%2.66%2.35%2.12%2.29%2.34%2.36%2.52%2.56%2.52%2.54%2.61%2.62%2.58%2.57%2.54%2.52%20061.80%1.90%2.72%2.33%2.05%2.26%2.32%2.35%2.52%2.57%2.52%2.54%2.62%2.63%2.59%2.58%2.54%2.52%20071.

5、99%3.18%2.50%2.11%2.36%2.41%2.42%2.61%2.65%2.60%2.61%2.69%2.70%2.65%2.63%2.59%2.56%20084.39%2.76%2.15%2.45%2.49%2.50%2.70%2.74%2.66%2.67%2.76%2.76%2.70%2.68%2.63%2.60%20091.15%1.05%1.81%2.02%2.12%2.42%2.50%2.45%2.48%2.59%2.61%2.56%2.55%2.51%2.48%20100.95%2.14%2.31%2.37%2.68%2.73%2.64%2.65%2.76%2.75%

6、2.69%2.67%2.61%2.57%20113.35%3.00%2.85%3.12%3.09%2.92%2.90%2.98%2.96%2.86%2.83%2.75%2.70%20122.65%2.59%3.04%3.03%2.84%2.82%2.93%2.91%2.81%2.77%2.70%2.65%20132.53%3.23%3.15%2.88%2.86%2.98%2.95%2.83%2.79%2.70%2.65%20143.93%3.46%3.00%2.94%3.07%3.01%2.87%2.82%2.72%2.66%20153.00%2.54%2.61%2.85%2.83%2.69%