1、We recently lai d out our Global Macro Outlook for 2024The Hard Part is Over.We provi de more detai l on our Global Markets Outlook here,hi ghli ghti ng as usual 10 core i nvestment themes that dri ve many of our market vi ews.More detai led outlooks for the i ndi vi dual asset classes are forthcomi

2、 ng.Parking the Plane:I nflati on neari ng target,no i mmi nent US recessi on,but1.markets already pri ced for soft-i sh landi ng.The Great Escape(From a Low-Yield Equilibrium):Real yi elds on core assets2.mostly back to pre-GFC levels,so a more conventi onal opportuni ty set.Loosening the Inflation

3、 Constraint:Further di si nflati on could open the door for3.a weak“Fed put”,especi ally later i n 2024.US ExceptionalismMore on Growth than Inflation:A beni gn growth4.backdrop i n most places,but US looks to be the“surest thi ng”.The Dark Side of“Higher for Longer”:Hi gher rates cause ongoi ng str

4、ess for5.some soverei gns and pockets of corporate and consumer sectors.Valuing Duration:Better valuati ons and a shi ft from i nflati on to growth ri sks6.make durati on more attracti ve for portfoli os.A Smaller Carry Cushion:Carry less appeali ng than all-i n yi eld,li mi ti ng the7.upsi de even

5、i n beni gn cases.EquitiesFinding the Right Kind of“Yield”:Valuati ons not uni formly8.stretched,potenti al upsi de i f rates fall earli er.EMThe Limits of Narrow Outperformance:Selecti ve performance reachi ng9.li mi ts,US rate reli ef needed to unlock broader gai ns.Balancing Portfolios:More balan

6、ce as non-cash assets outperform cash i n our10.central case and each asset class protects agai nst a di fferent“tai l”.Domi ni c Wi l son+1(212)902-5924|domi ni c.wi Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Kamakshya Tri vedi +44(20)7051-4005|kamakshya.tri vedi Goldman Sachs I nternati onalVi cki e Chang+1(212)902-691