1、Long duration,neutral credit risk.The end of monetary ti ghteni ng,decli ni ng i nflati on and sti ll-robust growth wi ll li kely allow spreads to remai n wi thi n the ti ght end of thei r recent range.Thi s i mpli es lower carry-dri ven excess returns vs.2023,gi ven current valuati ons,but hi gher

2、total returns,consi deri ng the stronger yi eld support vs.2023.Absent fundi ng reli ef next year,we expect the transi ti on to a hi gher cost of capi tal envi ronment wi ll li kely i nvolve a further upti ck i n financi al di stress and defaults among i ssuers wi th over-leveraged and rates-sensi t

3、i ve balance sheets.We thi nk thi s upti ck i s,to a large extent,pri ced i nto the HY bond market but less so i n the leveraged loan market.Themati cally,our relati ve value vi ews are centered on owni ng left tai l ri sks that we thi nk are oversold as well as markets that have been di slocated fo

4、r techni cal reasons.These i nclude banks i n the USD I G market,the real estate sector i n the EUR I G market,agency MBS,new i ssue BBB-rated CMBS,and mi ddle-market AAA-rated CLOs.Across currenci es,we are agnosti c as far as spreads are concerned but see more value i n the USD I G market for FX-h

5、edged i nvestors.Lastly,we expect the supply/demand backdrop wi ll li kely remai n fri endly on both si des of the Atlanti c,gi ven the attracti ve value proposi ti on of the asset class from an all-i n-yi eld standpoi nt and corporate borrowers i ncenti ves to manage capi tal conservati vely.Risks:

6、An earl ier dovish pivot vs.weaker growth.The mai n source of upsi de ri sk to our baseli ne forecasts i s earli er-than-expected fundi ng reli ef deli vered by central banks relati ve to our economi sts baseli ne vi ew.Should poli cy rates move lower and earli er than we expect,market parti ci pant