1、Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making thei

2、r investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.For a list of authors,please see overleaf.This 20th ed

3、ition of our annual review of top assets in global oil and gas production signals a turning point in the oil&gas capex cycle,as higher returns and a renewed sense of urgency around security of supply bring the industry back to growth.We highlight five key themes of change:1)Investment growth:we expe

4、ct oil&gas activity to compound at+9%pa growth(+13/24%for deepwater and LNG)by 2025,with a 2.4x increase of investmentdecisions from the trough.The industry currently has 70 giant projects underdevelopment,25%more than in 2020,but still 35%below the 2014 level.2)Production growth:despite higher inve

5、stment,production growth remainselusive.We expect non-OPEC ex-shale to remain broadly flat in the coming years andshale to slow down and peak by 2026-27,leading to a call on OPEC of 1.6 mn blsd by2025.3)Profitability:consolidation and higher hurdle rates continue to support strong profitability,with

6、 IRR 15%in LNG and 20%in oil for this years new projects.4)Shrinking reserves:oil reserve life keeps shrinking to 23 years,a 56%reduction over the past decade,as exploration disappoints and focus shifts to short-cycle,short-life developments.Investment delays since 2014 will cost 10 mn blsd of oil p