1、EXAMINING ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTYFollow the food!Are we headed for a new type of recession?By Bill RichardsonFor the past six months,inflation and interest rates have prominently been featured in the international news.1 This paper looks at historical recessions and suggests that the metric for evaluat

2、ing stability is the ratio between food-based inflation and personal earnings(follow the food).We conclude with a summary of what a recession might look like,and what key items business leaders and owners might consider in times of economic uncertainty.SummaryFour key takeaways:1.There are a growing

3、 number of experts predicting an economic slowdown if not a recession in the coming year.2.Lack of supply,not overreaching demand,is enhancing economic turbulence.3.The US will be at risk of a recession until wage growth exceeds the food-at-home CPI.4.The next recession will be a modest one(8 months

4、)as long as there is no global military conflict.1 the first two quarters of 2022,the US GDP dipped into negative territory.A recession is defined as two sequential quarters of negative economic activity.So technically,we were in a recession.However,in the last two quarters of 2022,the US rebounded,

5、indicating an annual increase of 3.2%in the third quarter and 2.9%in the fourth quarter.In recent history,the last recession was in early 2020,when the world was reacting and recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.The US economy quickly rebounded in 2020 and has been on a positive trend since early 2

6、023.Aside from these bumps in the economic road,the US has not seen an economic recession since the housing crisis of 2008.The World Bank cites that we will narrowly avoid a recession in 2023.2 However,some experts think we are headed for a significant economic downturn.3 If we do go into another re