1、Policy Research Working Paper10304From Middle Class to PovertyThe Unequal Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Developing CountriesMariana ViollazDaniel DuqueCarolina Diaz-BonillaDavid NewhouseMichael WeberSocial Protection and Jobs Global Practice&Poverty and Equity Global PracticeFebruary 2023 Publ

2、ic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedFrom Middle Class to Poverty:The Unequal Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Developing Countries Mariana ViollazaDaniel DuquebCarolina Diaz-Bonillac David Newhousec Michael Weberc JEL codes:C

3、36,D31,O20 Keywords:Microsimulation,economics shocks,distributional impact a CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP b Norwegian School of Economics c World Bank Group 2 1.Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated containment measures led to dramatic declines in economic activity levels and disrupted labor mark

4、ets worldwide,with potentially large distributional impacts.Empirical evidence from developed and developing countries is showing that traditionally disadvantaged workers-women,young,and low-educated workerswere hit hardest by the pandemic and,as a consequence,the patterns of existing inequalities a

5、re being exacerbated(Adams-Prassl et al.,2020;Fairlie et al.,2020;Lee et al.,2021;Kugler et al.,2021).Workers in developing countries are often self-employed or working in informal arrangements with a relatively low earnings level.The containment measures particularly affect these groups of workers,

6、leading to decreasing incomes and higher chances of falling into poverty.To design effective policies to protect the most vulnerable segments of the population,the distributional impacts of the pandemic need to be known.In the longer term,the calculations of prompt estimates on how individuals and h