1、Issue BriefOctober 2023DecodingIntentionsArtificial Intelligence and Costly SignalsAuthorsAndrew ImbrieOwen J.DanielsHelen Toner Center for Security and Emerging Technology|1 Executive Summary How can policymakers credibly reveal and assess intentions in the field of artificial intelligence?AI techn

2、ologies are evolving rapidly and enable a wide range of civilian and military applications.Private sector companies lead much of the innovation in AI,but their motivations and incentives may diverge from those of the state in which they are headquartered.As governments and companies compete to deplo

3、y evermore capable systems,the risks of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation will grow.Understanding the full complement of policy tools to prevent misperceptions and communicate clearly is essential for the safe and responsible development of these systems at a time of intensifying geopolitica

4、l competition.In this brief,we explore a crucial policy lever that has not received much attention in the public debate:costly signals.Costly signals are statements or actions for which the sender will pay a price political,reputational,or monetaryif they back down or fail to make good on their init

5、ial promise or threat.Drawing on a review of the scholarly literature,we highlight four costly signaling mechanisms and apply them to the field of AI(summarized in Table 1):Tying hands involves the strategic deployment of public commitments before a foreign or domestic audience,such as unilateral AI

6、 policy statements,votes in multilateral bodies,or public commitments to test and evaluate AI models;Sunk costs rely on commitments whose costs are priced in from the start,such as licensing and registration requirements for AI algorithms or large-scale investments in test and evaluation infrastruct