1、European Logistics OutlookEuropean Commercial March 2023SPOTLIGHTSavills Research Occupational Investment Outlook-2024681012Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Percent contribution to inflationFood and EnergyGoods and ServicesTotal-150-100-50050100150200Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-

2、21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-230=positive surpriseUnited StatesEuro AreaChinaSource:Savills Research using MacrobondA mixed economic outlookEuro area inflation appears to have peakedThe impact of rising interest rates and inflations strain on households became increasingly clear i

3、n the years final quarter.Investor confidence continued to falter in the last months of the year,leading to a not insubstantial decline in annual investment volumes into the sector and a significant decline compared to a record Q4 last year.In the occupier market,slowing consumer demand and rising c

4、osts began to hit occupiers,which led to a similar fall in leasing activity across Europe.Crucially,CPI data from December 2022 shows that inflation appears to have peaked and is now declining in the UK and euro area,as well as the US.In the euro area this fall has been led by a drop in energy price

5、s,which are now contributing a smaller proportion to inflation than they previously were.While interest rates will inevitably fall at a lag compared to the inflation rates that drove them,its worth noting that central banks have begun to strike a more dovish tone,suggesting we may be approaching a s

6、imilar peak in interest rates this year.While a downturn is still on the cards,many analysts expect it to be less pronounced than initially feared.Indeed,the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone,which measures the difference between official economic results and forecasts,rebounded from a l