1、 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 -80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%000300.SH857352.SL投资要点 2 一、一体化组件龙头,业绩持续高速增长.4 1.深耕光伏行业十八载,管理架构稳定.4 2.业绩稳步增长,费用管控得当.5 3.研发投入持续增加,产品性能业内领先.8 二、光伏组件行业高景气,一体化头部企业持续受益.11 1.组件是光伏系统中的重要环节,需求随光伏装机高增.11 2.大尺寸、叠片、双面助力降本增效,核心技术路线逐渐明晰.14 3.一体化降本持续,组件行业集中度不断提升.17 三、一体化构筑成本优势,品牌渠道力持续提升.20 1.产能扩张加速,一体化布局构筑成本
2、优势.20 2.先发布局全球化,渠道网络遍布全球.22 3.公司品牌优势明显,全球认可度较高.23 四、盈利预测与投资建议.25 五、风险提示.27 .4 .5 .6 .6 .6 .7 .7 .7 .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 .9 .9 .10 .10 .11 .11 VXjWrUoY9UjZtVoM7NdNbRmOrRpNtQiNoOwPeRtRtO9PoOzQuOmPqPvPpPqR 3 .11 .12 .12 .13 .13 .14 .15 .15 .16 .16 .17 .17 .17 .18 .18 .18 .18 .19 .20 .21 .22 .22 .23 .24 .5 .9
3、.13 .19 .20 .21 .25 .26 .28 4 5 6 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%010020030040050060070080020192020202120222023H1营业收入同比增速0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%010203040506020192020202120222023H1归母净利润同比增速86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%20192020202120222023H1太阳能组件其他光伏电站运营 7 0%5%10%15%20%25%20192020202120222023H
4、10%5%10%15%20%25%20192020202120222023H1毛利率净利率0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%20192020202120222023H1晶澳科技晶科能源天合光能隆基绿能东方日升协鑫集成0%2%4%6%8%10%12%20192020202120222023H1晶澳科技晶科能源天合光能隆基绿能东方日升协鑫集成 8 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%20192020202120222023H1晶澳科技晶科能源天合光能隆基绿能东方日升协鑫集成-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%20192020202120222023H1晶澳科技晶科能
5、源天合光能隆基绿能东方日升协鑫集成0%1%2%3%4%5%6%20192020202120222023H1晶澳科技晶科能源天合光能隆基绿能东方日升协鑫集成-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%20192020202120222023H1晶澳科技晶科能源天合光能隆基绿能东方日升协鑫集成 9 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%20192020202120222023H1晶澳科技晶科能源天合光能隆基绿能东方日升协鑫集成0%5%10%15%20%25%2019202020212022晶澳科技晶科能源天合光能隆基绿能东方日升协鑫集成 10 21.0%21.5%22.0%22.5%23
6、.0%23.5%24.0%24.5%2019202020212022公司产品行业平均 11 12 13 00.511.522.533.544.55硅料硅片电池片组件0510152025硅料硅片电池片组件 14 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E156.75 mm158.75 mm160-166 mm182 mm210 mm 15 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017