【研报】轨交行业系列研究一：城市轨道交通投融资模式探究-2020200630[31页].pdf

1、 / 2020-2022 1000 201852 GDP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 44.22 0.80 1.12 1.60 55.28 39.48 27.64 6.35 0.36 0.44 0.51 17.64 14.43 12.45 7.37 0.24 0.38 0.57 30.70 19.39 12.93 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 2020/2 202

2、0/3 2020/4 2020/5 2020/6 % 1M 3M 12M 6.38% 10.21% 5.52% -1.85% -3.97% -2.23% 378 26553 18199 32.70 1.87 13154 557 % 54.21 1N 2020-06-22 2020-05-18 TIC 2020-02-26 S0550516090002 02120363255 S0550518070002 02120363255 2020-06-30 2 / 31 1. 4 1.1. . 4 1.2. 5 2. . 6 2.1. . 6 2.2.PPP . 7 3.PPP . 9 3.1.PPP

3、4 . 10 3.1.1. 10 3.1.2. 10 3.1.3. 11 3.2.6 . 12 3.2.1. 12 3.2.2. 12 3.2.3. 13 3.3.“”+“A+B”1. 14 3.3.1. 14 3.3.2. 14 3.3.3. 15 3.4.PPP1. 16 3.4.1. 16 3.4.2. 16 3.4.3. 17 3.5.PPP. 18 3.5.1. 18 3.5.2. 18 3.5.3. 20 3.6.PPP2 . 20 3.6.1. 20 3.6.2. 21 3.6.3. 23 4. . 26 5. . 28 6. . 28 3 / 31 1 . 4 2 . 4 3

4、. 5 4 . 5 54PPP . 10 64PPP .11 74 . 12 86PPP . 13 91PPP . 15 10PPPBOT . 19 11 . 19 122. 21 132 . 22 142. 23 1“52”“81” . 5 2. 6 3 . 8 4 . 27 4 / 31 1. 1.1. 20101430177 885 36181.52188 1.5 4-5 20196730 969 2020-2022 1000 1 2 20193008 400 801.34775.60501.00431.48 11.91%11.52% 7.44%6.41% 2019 77.07%3.79

5、% 6.03%0.86% 5 / 31 3 4 1.2. 2018 2018525252 81 GDP 52GDP 20186 3 1.97% 812018 52 GDP 15281 52 81 300 100 3000 1000 300 300 0.7 3 3 6 / 31 2. 2.1. 1401863 2 10% 6:4 75% 2/3 40.5% 1/32/3 PPP 7 / 31 2.2. PPP PPP (Public-Private Partnership) PPPPPP PPPPPP PPP 2030 2014 60PPP PPPPPP PPPPPP () PPP PPP PP

6、P PPP PPP ()PPP PPPPPP 201930% PPP 8 / 31 20 3-46-7 PPP 3 82 6.51 74.52 11.45 103 5.50 37.16 6.76 131 28.85 236.44 8.20 172 27.60 200.14 7.25 183 14.39 146.56 10.18 192 45.60 284.25 6.23 271 22.20 148.13 6.67 301 24.78 191.12 7.71 2 9.1 51.31 5.64 3 3 8.39 2.80 4 4 20.13 5.03 51 19.5 153.82 7.89 6 2