科尔尼（A.T. Kearney）：COVID-19之后的全球消费者市场前景和供应链战略（英文版）（49页）.pdf

1、When winter comes, prepare for spring Post COVID-19 global consumer market outlook and supply chain reshaping May 2020 2 Consumer market outlook Reshaping future supply chain trend and strategy 12 3 1. Consumer market outlook 4 Before COVID-19: World consumption growth was mostly driven by the US an

2、d China, followed by India and Japan 1 Global consumer trend before COVID-19 How key markets consumption moves post COVID-19 will shape future global consumption trend 1Year on year retail sales growth over total top 10 retail sales growth (%) Sources: EIU, IMF; Kearney analysis Retail sales of top

3、10 consumption countries (20042019E, $ billion) YoY retail sales growth contribution1 (%) 3,500 500 0 1,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 3,000 4,000 4,500 2011 2018 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019E US China Brazil Japan UK India Germany France Russia Italy 40 28 19 22 57 1

4、8 30 27 33 52 54 11 19 40 18 15 1 22 -1 0 2 5 2 4 -14 4 -7 7 -2 20182008 5 5 2 -2 2016 -5 3 -2 0 5 5 9 2017 5 7 -6 -6 3 2 2019E2005 5 6 US China Japan Germany India France UK Italy 5 5 Before COVID- 19： What we are used to A. Trading online B. Trading globally C. Individual centric 1 Global consumer

5、 trend before COVID-19 Source: Kearney: The Consumer Goods Forum Global Summit report 2017 6 6 A. Moving online E-commerce as % of total retail sales (20142019) 1 Global consumer trend before COVID-19 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 201420152016201720182019 Western Europe Japan World South Korea China Ger

6、many UK Eastern Europe Australasia Asia Pacific Latin America France MEA1 US 1Middle East and Africa Sources: Passport; Kearney analysis China, South Korea, Japan, and Asia lead in the online trend The US and Western Europe are moving at a slower pace Much of the rest of the world is still in nascen