1、 Banque de France macroeconomic projections for France March 2023 1 MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS France 2023-25 20 March 2023 Since our December forecasts,energy prices have eased more than expected as the mild winter,energy saving efforts and European measures have helped to avert an energy supply cri

2、sis.As a result,for 2023,we have revised inflation downwards and growth upwards in our March projections.At the 2024-25 horizon,the projections are little-changed.These projections,which were finalised at the start of March,are subject to increased uncertainty due to the financial market tensions th

3、at have emerged since 10 March.In 2022,commodity and energy price pressures led to high inflation,with the annual average rate reaching 5.9%and the year-on-year rate even reaching 7.0%in the final quarter of the year.In 2023,French inflation should start to subside:price pressures on commodities,inc

4、luding on agricultural commodities,eased significantly in the first months of the year and this trend should continue.Against this backdrop,headline HICP(Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices)inflation is projected to fall back markedly,although with some surprises still possible in the month-on-month

5、 readings.Year-on-year,inflation should fall to 3.8%at the end of 2023.The less volatile component of inflation,HICP excluding energy and food,is expected to fall at a lag,and to a lesser extent,reaching 3.8%at the end of 2023 compared with 4.2%at the end of 2022.In 2024 and 2025,inflation should co

6、ntinue to fall markedly,reflecting the gradual impact of monetary policy tightening which has helped to anchor economic agents inflation expectations.It should come back towards the European Central Banks(ECBs)2%target.The external tax shock is continuing to weigh on French households and businesses