1、 Banque de France macroeconomic projections for France June 2023 1 MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FRANCE 2023-25 20 June 2023 Overall,our growth and inflation projections for the French economy up to 2025 confirm those published in March.The French economy should succeed in progressively overcoming infla

2、tion without slipping into recession,albeit with a marked economic slowdown.That said,a more detailed analysis shows a number of underlying revisions to the figures.With energy prices normalising and the risk of supply cut-offs now averted,economic growth appears moderate but resilient at the start

3、of this year.Our growth forecast for 2023 has been revised up slightly to 0.7%.Nonetheless,the absorption of the major past shocks,including by our trading partners,means that French growth is now seen recovering slightly more gradually than previously expected,with GDP rising by 1.0%in 2024 and 1.5

4、%in 2025.The external environment should be slightly less favourable than we anticipated in March,and we expect the recovery in foreign trade and French exports to remain sluggish.The much-needed tightening of financing conditions should gradually have a moderating impact,not just on inflation but a

5、lso,temporarily,on investment.Household consumption is only expected to pick up gradually.After peaking in the second quarter,headline inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices(HICP)is projected to subside gradually in the second half of 2023 and beyond,coming back towards 2%b

6、y 2025,provided there are no new shocks to commodity import prices.In annual average terms,HICP inflation should be 5.6%in 2023 and 2.4%in 2024.It has been revised upwards slightly for 2023 compared with our March projections,reflecting a slightly more persistent rise in food prices.Year-on-year,it