1、04The rebound is picking up speed11 April 202308From profitability to financing shock14What if there is another major financial gap?No rest for Insolvency reportAllianz Researchthe leveraged2ExecutiveSummaryAllianz ResearchMaxime LemerleLead Analyst for Insolvency Researchmaxime.lemerleallianz- Mari

2、a LatorreB2B Sector Advisormaria.latorreallianz-Ano Kuhanathan Head of Corporate Researchano.kuhanathanallianz- The rebound in business insolvencies is picking up speed:Our Global Insolvency Index is set to jump by+21%in 2023 and+4%in 2024.Half of the countries we analyzed are likely to exceed their

3、 pre-pandemic levels of insolvencies in 2023,and three out of five in 2024.In Europe,we expect insolvencies to reach 59,000 cases in France in 2023(+41%y/y),28,500 cases in the UK(+16%),17,800 cases in Germany(+22%)and 8,900 cases in Italy(+24%).In the US,we expect an increase of+49%in 2023 as a res

4、ult of tighter credit conditions and the sharp slowdown,which will mean a return to 20,000+insolvencies per year.China should see a moderate increase in insolvencies(+4%)as the construction sector is still ailing.f Lower growth in 2023 and 2024 will have its toll.We calculate that the Eurozone and t

5、he US would need 1.3pp and 1.5pp of additional GDP growth on average in 2023-2024 to stabilize the number of insolvencies.The current muddle through environment is the main reason behind our forecast.Watch out for domino effects:The number of insolvencies for firms with more than EUR50mn in revenue

6、is now slightly above pre-pandemic levels(construction,retail and services most affected).g Beyond demand,prolonged pressure on profitability,weaker cash buffers and tighter-for-longer financial conditions are testing the resilience of the most fragile companies.This includes those with the least pr