团结香港基金：香港房屋趋势导航2026（英文版）（106页）.pdf

1、Land and Housing Policy Research ReportHong Kong HousingLandscape Navigator 2026April 2026Content2Executive Summary6Private Housing Market Review30Private Housing Market Outlook70Public Housing Policy SpotlightSuccessful government land sale tenders,2023/242025/26Part I:Private Housing Market Review

2、1.The Hong Kong private housing market entered a“double-growth”recovery in 2025,with prices rebounding by 3.3%and transaction volumes surging 18.3%.This synchronised upturn signals a definitive end to the 20212024 correction.Momentum was concentrated in the entry-level segment,with Class A units(und

3、er 40 m)outperforming the market at 4.1%price growth,and transactions for sub-HK$4 million homes surging 29.4%year-on-year.This resurgence was catalysed by policy tailwinds,including stamp duty threshold adjustments and the withdrawal of“spicy measures”,which revitalised both investor interest and e

4、ntry-level demand.2.Following the 2024 supply peak,private housing completions fell 24%to 18,448 units in 2025.This moderation,alongside rising transactions,pushed net absorption back into positive territory for the first time since 2021.Consequently,unsold stock dropped 18%from its 2023 peak to 18,

5、694 units.While an inventory overhang persists,eased pressure has shifted developers strategy from aggressive,volume-driven price concessions towards profit-optimised pricing,signalling that the most acute supply-side imbalances have now subsided.3.Building on the market recovery,developers strategy

6、 has shifted towards aggressive forward-positioning.2025/26 saw a“dual-track”recovery in the land market:land premium revenue rebounded through both public tenders and lease modifications/land exchanges.Bidding activity intensified,with bid spreads narrowing and participation rising to 89 bidders pe