1、China luxury market:the ridge path toward a cautious recovery Outlook on the buying behaviors of Chinese aspirational luxury shoppersResearch report2025Kearney XX/ID2StorylineBased on a survey of 3,000 Chinese luxury shoppers,August 2025.Cautious optimism,selective spending.Most feel upbeat on the e

2、conomy(80%),jobs(79%),and policy support(82%),yet expect per capita luxury spend to dip about 4%(￥146.8k￥141.5k).Category outlook.Stagnation with pressure on big-ticket items.Large leather goods(7%)and watches(6%)drive softness;fashion and small accessories(1%),jewelry(2%),perfumery and beauty(flat)

3、.Middle-aged,high-income,first-tier city consumers show the strongest drive for recovery and higher spending;younger and lower-income cohorts are more cautious.Local love rises.Share of luxury spend going to Chinese luxury brands climbs from 39%to 44%cross-category;jewelry leads the shift while perf

4、umery and beauty bucks it.Tariffs steer choices.About 77%say USChina tariffs will affect behavior;roughly 50%would switch to domesticluxury,about 5961%would avoid US-made goods or prefer US brands made elsewhere,and approximately 57%plan more duty-free purchases.Channels.“Official”first,travel retai

5、l rising.Planned purchase points:official offline 56%,official online 44%,mainlandairports 44%,Hainan 39%well ahead of unofficial channels.Overseas buys.Meaningful but measured.36%plan to shop outside mainland;most will keep it less than 30%of spend.Millennials are most outward(43%buy overseas;about

6、 28%of their spend).LLG and watches skew topurchases outside Asia;authenticity is the#1 driver.Some will spend less.Top reasons:build savings(48%)and shift to experiences(38%);the experience shift is strongest for Gen Z/Millennials(4144%vs.31%for older).Brands can drive sales with several levers,inc