绿城管理-港股公司研究报告-受益于行业新增“刚需”的代建龙头首次覆盖给予“买入”-230516（15页）.pdf

1、 See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 15 Equity Research Company Report Equity Research Report 股股票票研研究究 公公司司报报告告 证证券券研研究究报报告告 Property Sector 房房地地产产行行业业 Greentown Management(09979 HK)绿绿城城管管理理 Company Report:Greentown Management(09979 HK)Chunli Zhan 詹春立(852)2509 7745 公司报告：绿城管理(09979 HK).hk 16 M

2、ay 2023 Project Management Leader to Benefit From Emerging Rigid Demand,Initiate With Buy 受益于行业新增“刚需”的代建龙头，首次覆盖给予“买入”We initiate with Buy rating and TP of HK$10.00.We forecast the Companys 2023F-2025F EPS to be RMB0.464,RMB0.581 and RMB0.708,respectively,which represents a CAGR of 22.6%during 2022-2

3、025F.With PE multiple valuation method,we derive our HK$10.00 TP for Greentown Management by applying 19.0 x 2023F PE.We initiate with Buy rating.Where we differ:Despite the down cycle of the property industry,we believe that there is a window of opportunity for further growth in the project managem

4、ent sector.Since urban investment enterprises,AMCs and financial institutions have become major players in the land market,we expect that the change in participant structure will bring more rigid demand for project management,which the market is not fully aware of.Greentown Management will take this

5、 opportunity for further growth,with its competitive brand+SOE background.We expect the overall market size of project management to maintain high growth(around 20%per year till 2027),underpinned by increasing demand from these new non-development enterprises.Greentown Management is going to maintai

6、n its leading position,and hence has strong earnings growth outlook,in our view.Catalysts:1)Large newly contracted GFA from urban investment enterprises,AMCs and financial institutions;and 2)improvement in profitability due to economies of scale.Downside risks:1)Lower-than-expected market penetratio