1、REPORTMarketOutlookIntelligent Investment2023PacificREAL ESTATECBRE RESEARCH2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Pacific Real Estate Market OutlookContentsEconomic Outlook Spotlight on three themesInvestment outlook Industrial&Logistics04121623Office RetailResidentialHotels2835434

2、93CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Pacific Real Estate Market OutlookFor Industrial and Residential,we see“rent-a-demic”as vacancy remains tight.Supply of new real estate product has been pushed back in 2022.There is scope for low supply to sustain a higher level of rents.Weve

3、pulled back Office supply growth from 1.6%to 1.1%pa to 2028.We also estimate 2023 residential apartment construction is likely to be c45%below 2017 peak level.Both Australia(+1.7%)and New Zealand(+1.0%)are likely to experience economic growth,albeit below trend.We see Australian interest rates near

4、peak level and NZ could see another 1.25%of hikes.Stabilising rates should reduce price anxiety around transactions.We expect cap rate expansion of another 25bps-100bps in 2023.Where are the opportunities?We like inner city and CBD locations benefiting from a confluence of returning workers,internat

5、ional students,tourists and consumers craving buzz.We see construction costs easing in 2023,helping those development projects getting off the ground in Industrial&Residential.We forecast vacancy tightening in“premium”and“value”segments of Office and Retail.This will increase the attractiveness of t

6、hese segments for investors.We expect strong rent growth and weaker values compared to recent years of strong valuation and low income growth.2023 will see a reversion of history.Economic Outlook01Australian economy is expected to grow 1.7%in 2023,with cash rates likely to peak shortly.Immigration i