1、A business of Marsh McLennanChinas consumption recoveryWhat to expect from Chinese consumers in 2023 and beyondJanuary 2023 edition2A REAL CHINA ROLLERCOASTER3 3A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE FOR CHINA IN THE PAST YEARS,ESPECIALLY IN 2022Source:National Bureau of Statistics,National Health Commission,Governme

2、nt Office2020 Wuhan outbreak-3.9%yoy decline in retail sales+31.0%yoy growth intotal domestic travel spending2021 Normalization2022 City-wide lockdowns(Mar 2022 Nov 2022)Shenzhen:MarShanghai:Apr May Beijing:May JunGuangzhou:NovZero-COVID Policy Relaxation&Massive COVID outbreak(Nov 2022+)?Dec 7:Publ

3、ic places stopped checking the Health CodeDec 26:Announcement of border control relaxationJan 6:Henans COVID infection rate reached 89%Jan 8:Border reopening with reduced COVID measures+13.7%yoy growth in retail sales4 4HUGE LOSS IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND SPENDING IN 2022-0.2%yoy decline in 2022 re

4、tail spending-3.1%yoy decline in 2022 discretionary spendingDive in consumer confidence Slow down in retail spendingRecord low at 85.5in November 2022Beijing-6%(JanNov 2022)Shanghai-9%(JanNov 2022)Consumer Confidence Index1(NBS)124.6119.5121.2118.487.587.486.885.52022 Q32022 Oct20192022 Q12020202120

5、22 Q22022 Nov1.Range from 0-200,100 means optimistic;weighted average based on consumer satisfaction of current employment and financial condition and expectation of future 6-month conditionSource:National Bureau of Statistics5 5ACHIEVING 3-5%GDP GROWTH IN THE NEW ERA WILL REQUIRE MUCH GREATER FOCUS

6、 ON DRIVING DOMESTIC CONSUMPTIONThe development of China real GDP12010-2030F,%Market realities2020201020122014201620182022F2024F2026F2030F2028F7%11%8%7%7%2%8%Emerging ChinaThe“New Normal”COVID period“Chinese Modernization”Focus on growth rateHighly reliant on infrastructure investment and export-ori